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Table 2 Evaluation of the old-age pension reform in 1997 & business cycle variables, Spanish male 45–59; coefficients

From: Business cycle and spillover effects on pre-retirement behavior in Spain

  Disability Unemployment Inactivity
Covered Wages −0.0018*** −0.0011*** −0.003***
  (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
High School −0.144*** −0.492*** −1.228***
  (0.053) (0.057) (0.047)
Bachelor’s and Higher −0.103 −1.382*** −0.782***
  (0.083) (0.094) (0.072)
Primary sector 0.163 −12.65*** −1.101***
  (0.168) (1.015) (0.144)
secondary sector 0.205** −24.36*** −0.453***
  (0.102) (0.620) (0.080)
Tertiary sector −0.0515 −17.85*** 0.0594
  (0.091) (0.567) (0.058)
Education sector −1.070*** −15.65*** −0.492***
  (0.304) (0.125) (0.164)
Social services −0.511*** −3.805*** −0.650***
  (0.129) (0.447) (0.098)
Number Workers Firm 0.0001*** 0.0003*** 0.0001***
  (0.000) (0.000) (2.07e-05)
Catalonia Region 0.203** 1.115*** −0.297***
  (0.086) (0.209) (0.0788)
Mediterranean Region −0.0323 1.302*** −0.291***
  (0.098) (0.202) (0.0762)
Northern Region (excl Catalonia) 0.682*** 2.157*** −0.0484
  (0.079) (0.194) (0.0680)
Castilla: Centre (exclMadrid) 0.0991 2.261*** −0.253***
  (0.0953) (0.195) (0.0750)
South Region 0.502*** 1.013*** −0.639***
  (0.099) (0.208) (0.0862)
Duration 0.0560*** −0.046*** 0.0236***
  (0.004) (0.002) (0.002)
Duration^2 −0.0004*** 0.0006*** −0.0002***
  (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Duration^3 0.000*** −0.000*** 0.000***
  (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Part-time Contract −2.275*** −2.678*** −1.712***
  (0.279) (0.395) (0.150)
Cohort born 1941-1946 0.324*** 0.838*** −0.342***
  (0.083) (0.081) (0.0635)
Cohort born 1947-1951 0.832*** 1.558*** −0.605***
  (0.118) (0.116) (0.0924)
Cohort born 1952-1956 1.096*** 2.632*** −1.140***
  (0.162) (0.184) (0.131)
Cohort born 1957-1961 1.951*** 3.060*** −2.029***
  (0.223) (0.212) (0.268)
Year Post-1997 −0.127 0.970*** 0.658***
  (0.150) (0.181) (0.112)
Year Contributed=15 0.498** 0.0841 −0.0631
  (0.224) (0.081) (0.140)
Year Contributed=15*Post1997 −2.644*** 0.130 −0.406
  (1.026) (0.264) (0.369)
15<Year Contributed≤25 0.372*** −0.128** −0.0776
  (0.129) (0.058) (0.0697)
15<Year Contributed≤25*Post1997 −0.796*** −0.322 0.0351
  (0.157) (0.197) (0.117)
25<Year Contributed<35 0.0373 0.254*** −0.314***
  (0.140) (0.083) (0.0933)
25<Year Contributed<35*Post1997 −0.063 −1.724*** 0.449***
  (0.146) (0.204) (0.126)
Year Contributed≥35 0.0500 −0.625*** −0.0196
  (0.132) (0.197) (0.142)
Age −0.799*** 2.083*** 0.379***
  (0.203) (0.135) (0.146)
Age^2 0.008*** −0.019*** −0.004***
  (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
Unem.Rate CCAA −0.001 0.066*** 0.0449***
  (0.005) (0.005) (0.0045)
Unem.Rate Sector 0.002 2.182*** −0.0628***
  (0.009) (0.063) (0.0085)
GDP Growth −0.049* −0.295*** −0.397***
  (0.027) (0.011) (0.0255)
Age 52 −0.182* 0.0624 0.215***
  (0.102) (0.049) (0.0702)
Age 55 0.254*** −0.017 0.278***
  (0.080) (0.054) (0.0806)
Age 58 0.056 0.218*** 0.447***
  (0.084) (0.068) (0.100)
Constant 9.562* −73.11*** −11.22***
  (5.33) (3.57) (3.777)
Observations 6,442,191 6,442,191 6,442,191
Log-likelihood −78823.93   
  1. Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
  2. Note: The omitted categories for the dummy variables are laborers without a high-school degree for the education dummies, public administration for the sector of the economy in which the individual works, Madrid for the regional dummies and the cohort of 1935–40.