Table 2 Evaluation of the old-age pension reform in 1997 & business cycle variables, Spanish male 45–59; coefficients

Covered Wages

−0.0018***

−0.0011***

−0.003***

(0.000)

(0.000)

(0.000)

High School

−0.144***

−0.492***

−1.228***

(0.053)

(0.057)

(0.047)

Bachelor’s and Higher

−0.103

−1.382***

−0.782***

(0.083)

(0.094)

(0.072)

Primary sector

0.163

−12.65***

−1.101***

(0.168)

(1.015)

(0.144)

secondary sector

0.205**

−24.36***

−0.453***

(0.102)

(0.620)

(0.080)

Tertiary sector

−0.0515

−17.85***

0.0594

(0.091)

(0.567)

(0.058)

Education sector

−1.070***

−15.65***

−0.492***

(0.304)

(0.125)

(0.164)

Social services

−0.511***

−3.805***

−0.650***

(0.129)

(0.447)

(0.098)

Number Workers Firm

0.0001***

0.0003***

0.0001***

(0.000)

(0.000)

(2.07e-05)

Catalonia Region

0.203**

1.115***

−0.297***

(0.086)

(0.209)

(0.0788)

Mediterranean Region

−0.0323

1.302***

−0.291***

(0.098)

(0.202)

(0.0762)

Northern Region (excl Catalonia)

0.682***

2.157***

−0.0484

(0.079)

(0.194)

(0.0680)

Castilla: Centre (exclMadrid)

0.0991

2.261***

−0.253***

(0.0953)

(0.195)

(0.0750)

South Region

0.502***

1.013***

−0.639***

(0.099)

(0.208)

(0.0862)

Duration

0.0560***

−0.046***

0.0236***

(0.004)

(0.002)

(0.002)

Duration^2

−0.0004***

0.0006***

−0.0002***

(0.000)

(0.000)

(0.000)

Duration^3

0.000***

−0.000***

0.000***

(0.000)

(0.000)

(0.000)

Part-time Contract

−2.275***

−2.678***

−1.712***

(0.279)

(0.395)

(0.150)

Cohort born 1941-1946

0.324***

0.838***

−0.342***

(0.083)

(0.081)

(0.0635)

Cohort born 1947-1951

0.832***

1.558***

−0.605***

(0.118)

(0.116)

(0.0924)

Cohort born 1952-1956

1.096***

2.632***

−1.140***

(0.162)

(0.184)

(0.131)

Cohort born 1957-1961

1.951***

3.060***

−2.029***

(0.223)

(0.212)

(0.268)

Year Post-1997

−0.127

0.970***

0.658***

(0.150)

(0.181)

(0.112)

Year Contributed=15

0.498**

0.0841

−0.0631

(0.224)

(0.081)

(0.140)

Year Contributed=15*Post1997

−2.644***

0.130

−0.406

(1.026)

(0.264)

(0.369)

15<Year Contributed≤25

0.372***

−0.128**

−0.0776

(0.129)

(0.058)

(0.0697)

15<Year Contributed≤25*Post1997

−0.796***

−0.322

0.0351

(0.157)

(0.197)

(0.117)

25<Year Contributed<35

0.0373

0.254***

−0.314***

(0.140)

(0.083)

(0.0933)

25<Year Contributed<35*Post1997

−0.063

−1.724***

0.449***

(0.146)

(0.204)

(0.126)

Year Contributed≥35

0.0500

−0.625***

−0.0196

(0.132)

(0.197)

(0.142)

Age

−0.799***

2.083***

0.379***

(0.203)

(0.135)

(0.146)

Age^2

0.008***

−0.019***

−0.004***

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.001)

Unem.Rate CCAA

−0.001

0.066***

0.0449***

(0.005)

(0.005)

(0.0045)

Unem.Rate Sector

0.002

2.182***

−0.0628***

(0.009)

(0.063)

(0.0085)

GDP Growth

−0.049*

−0.295***

−0.397***

(0.027)

(0.011)

(0.0255)

Age 52

−0.182*

0.0624

0.215***

(0.102)

(0.049)

(0.0702)

Age 55

0.254***

−0.017

0.278***

(0.080)

(0.054)

(0.0806)

Age 58

0.056

0.218***

0.447***

(0.084)

(0.068)

(0.100)

Constant

9.562*

−73.11***

−11.22***

(5.33)

(3.57)

(3.777)

Observations

6,442,191

6,442,191

6,442,191

Log-likelihood

−78823.93