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Table 4 Transition probabilities by worker group

From: Transitions in labour market status in EU labour markets

Labour market status year t
Labour market status year t-1    Central Eastern Nordics Continental Mediterranean
Males   E U NA E U NA E U NA E U NA
1998-2003 E 93.245 4.705 3.130 92.353 2.938 4.878 94.018 3.641 2.425 95.623 2.144 2.317
  U 30.950 58.559 12.394 34.708 51.257 16.568 32.590 61.282 6.850 34.789 61.845 4.029
  NA 9.734 5.352 86.706 16.526 4.841 79.731 11.119 3.777 87.441 8.989 4.286 87.018
2004-2008 E 95.328 2.792 1.995 92.891 2.548 4.618 94.094 2.795 3.059 95.896 2.507 1.643
  U 30.147 61.747 11.399 40.153 46.234 15.623 34.496 47.746 17.764 29.169 68.048 2.952
  NA 7.028 3.608 89.968 15.327 4.825 80.050 10.097 3.540 86.318 4.949 4.162 90.935
Females   E U NA E U NA E U NA E U NA
1998-2003 E 91.604 4.007 5.701 89.993 2.862 7.255 91.220 4.296 3.956 93.787 2.791 3.524
  U 25.193 56.422 19.740 33.206 48.477 21.387 28.484 59.799 12.138 28.395 64.841 7.535
  NA 8.287 4.690 88.411 17.279 5.211 78.220 6.940 3.443 89.798 3.999 2.786 93.342
2004-2008 E 92.935 2.661 4.212 89.422 2.673 8.077 92.196 3.103 4.758 93.651 3.165 3.246
  U 26.614 61.687 16.495 39.468 41.124 20.989 31.897 42.174 25.956 24.145 69.553 6.965
  NA 6.247 3.362 84.196 16.609 5.125 78.349 8.985 3.742 87.244 3.245 3.422 93.429
Low education   E U NA E U NA E U NA E U NA
1998-2003 E 88.732 5.616 7.268 86.591 3.797 10.118 90.184 5.440 4.230 93.662 2.828 3.618
  U 21.069 61.114 20.158 27.572 55.099 20.989 24.580 65.824 10.283 29.013 65.372 6.167
  NA 6.430 1.908 93.626 10.149 3.228 87.161 4.374 2.933 93.339 3.985 2.122 94.186
2004-2008 E 89.918 4.722 5.206 86.744 4.001 9.406 90.216 4.154 5.636 93.804 3.389 2.865
  U 19.299 68.509 17.773 31.646 49.062 21.088 25.456 49.311 25.555 22.241 73.148 4.920
  NA 2.977 1.329 91.580 8.387 4.115 87.456 4.657 2.616 92.691 1.906 2.312 95.836
Medium education   E U NA E U NA E U NA E U NA
1998-2003 E 92.508 4.774 3.877 90.849 3.238 5.979 93.144 3.838 2.834 95.839 2.175 2.036
  U 30.486 56.390 14.573 36.121 47.854 18.179 34.295 57.085 9.085 33.197 61.578 6.023
  NA 10.284 7.607 83.601 21.271 7.519 72.734 11.820 4.472 86.162 8.120 4.638 87.529
2004-2008 E 94.218 2.940 2.877 91.180 2.793 6.139 93.232 2.997 3.796 95.565 2.578 1.912
  U 31.040 59.890 12.426 40.892 42.302 18.749 36.922 42.650 20.287 29.975 65.349 5.058
  NA 7.814 4.751 83.955 20.497 6.239 73.654 11.206 4.413 84.342 5.495 4.461 90.164
High education   E U NA E U NA E U NA E U NA
1998-2003 E 96.393 1.895 2.492 95.176 1.733 3.178 95.147 2.371 2.235 97.359 1.258 1.477
  U 40.909 47.924 14.882 41.378 46.207 16.006 43.082 49.453 8.209 44.938 54.006 3.181
  NA 21.510 9.129 70.648 29.188 7.025 65.601 20.603 4.986 75.311 21.654 13.906 64.930
2004-2008 E 96.533 1.192 2.337 94.352 1.605 4.138 95.551 1.929 2.521 96.780 1.666 1.604
  U 41.427 51.792 10.706 47.453 40.204 14.474 43.830 39.251 17.190 36.449 58.907 5.212
  NA 21.255 7.847 70.319 30.768 6.600 63.201 22.201 5.536 72.251 15.199 12.842 72.289
15-24 year olds   E U NA E U NA E U NA E U NA
1998-2003 E 86.184 8.691 6.630 67.533 4.531 28.716 84.492 10.268 5.337 90.498 5.738 3.912
  U 32.528 54.780 15.116 39.723 34.376 29.650 42.075 49.440 9.132 29.849 63.545 6.929
  NA 10.818 5.799 86.677 20.864 3.693 76.934 11.905 3.699 86.247 6.135 4.804 89.189
2004-2008 E 88.751 6.141 5.073 66.369 5.141 28.857 87.848 7.218 5.352 90.343 6.784 3.041
  U 33.789 55.491 13.077 43.578 30.444 27.296 43.014 43.881 13.465 30.130 65.238 4.940
  NA 6.480 4.096 88.579 16.159 4.900 79.125 13.436 4.436 82.053 4.983 4.566 90.485
25-29 year olds   E U NA E U NA E U NA E U NA
1998-2003 E 91.749 5.803 3.713 88.882 3.541 7.623 91.195 5.864 2.283 94.765 3.984 1.382
  U 33.423 55.659 13.002 44.203 39.350 18.187 40.310 52.178 8.416 32.251 64.274 4.169
  NA 18.507 10.566 72.434 32.669 8.984 60.255 24.474 10.159 66.622 12.257 8.505 79.667
2004-2008 E 93.546 3.536 2.968 88.356 3.174 8.723 91.572 4.721 3.687 93.682 4.600 1.770
  U 34.758 57.259 11.937 49.428 34.088 19.271 45.885 41.096 13.290 31.511 64.551 4.248
  NA 17.416 8.889 65.291 33.957 8.452 58.421 27.994 10.532 61.306 12.118 10.441 77.671
30-54 year olds   E U NA E U NA E U NA E U NA
1998-2003 E 94.452 3.880 2.671 95.307 2.615 2.091 95.131 3.110 1.601 96.645 1.915 1.493
  U 26.174 59.655 15.657 36.844 50.093 16.101 30.190 63.030 7.269 33.519 62.001 5.464
  NA 9.097 6.570 85.321 19.224 10.580 73.314 8.285 5.296 87.150 7.483 3.051 90.052
2004-2008 E 95.995 2.407 1.566 95.158 2.239 2.702 95.614 2.499 1.876 96.345 2.387 1.303
  U 27.008 64.579 13.157 43.243 45.134 13.396 34.820 49.809 15.556 24.936 70.709 4.873
  NA 7.927 4.432 78.998 22.769 8.106 69.964 9.556 5.619 84.807 4.058 4.273 91.920
55-64 year olds   E U NA E U NA E U NA E U NA
1998-2003 E 85.043 2.096 15.287 89.532 2.975 7.851 81.747 3.041 15.588 86.903 1.365 12.038
  U 16.774 50.835 36.484 17.948 65.101 21.694 5.518 73.821 21.538 28.008 64.215 9.896
  NA 3.498 0.957 95.914 1.808 2.797 96.838 0.734 1.275 98.536 1.063 0.814 98.243
2004-2008 E 87.518 1.532 11.259 89.995 2.730 7.442 84.457 1.409 14.206 90.017 1.571 8.586
  U 15.695 63.970 29.805 25.324 55.813 23.375 7.670 33.260 57.741 13.753 77.843 9.315
  NA 3.364 0.626 94.626 2.697 2.174 96.027 1.131 0.482 98.397 0.559 0.998 98.518
  1. Note: E = employed; U = unemployed; NA = inactive so that EE = remains in employment between one year and the next; UU = remains in unemployment, NANA = remains in inactivity. Observations are weighted according to the labour force share (15–64) in each country over the aggregate. Elements showing a probability of remaining in the same labour market state (employment, unemployment and inactivity) are in bold.
  2. Sources: LFS microdata, authors’ computations.
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