Table 7 Regressions for the probability of being in permanent employment some months later; individuals holding a fixed-term contract in a specific period
From: Getting stable: an evaluation of the incentives for permanent contracts in Italy
| Â | Dependent variable | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Â | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
Control group: Men ≥ 30 Treatment group: all eligibles | Dummy for contract conversion in the initial period | Dummy for permanent employment on the 15th of the following: | ||
February | April | June | ||
| Â | Individuals with a fixed-term contract in period III (in 2011 or 2012) | |||
Eligible | −0.0037*** | −0.0367*** | −0.0420*** | −0.0498*** |
| Â | (0.0009) | (0.0029) | (0.0034) | (0.0037) |
Year 2012 | −0.0003 | 0.0036 | 0.0017 | −0.0042 |
| Â | (0.0010) | (0.0030) | (0.0033) | (0.0034) |
Eligible × Year 2012 | 0.0152*** | 0.0110*** | 0.0078** | 0.0089** |
| Â | (0.0013) | (0.0035) | (0.0038) | (0.0040) |
Constant | 0.0187*** | 0.1701*** | 0.2103*** | 0.2425*** |
| Â | (0.0007) | (0.0025) | (0.0029) | (0.0032) |
Observations | 284,012 | 284,012 | 284,012 | 284,012 |
Test for equality of interaction term with column (1) | 0.2075 | 0.0428 | 0.1027 | |
| Â | Falsification using period [17/11 - 2/12] (in 2011 or 2012) | |||
Eligible | −0.0040*** | −0.0342*** | −0.0402*** | −0.0492*** |
| Â | (0.0008) | (0.0029) | (0.0034) | (0.0038) |
Year 2012 | −0.0001 | 0.0092*** | 0.0083** | 0.0023 |
| Â | (0.0009) | (0.0033) | (0.0036) | (0.0037) |
Eligible × Year 2012 | 0.0003 | −0.0056 | −0.0091** | −0.0078* |
| Â | (0.0011) | (0.0037) | (0.0041) | (0.0044) |
Constant | 0.0157*** | 0.1609*** | 0.2074*** | 0.2460*** |
| Â | (0.0006) | (0.0025) | (0.0028) | (0.0033) |
Observations | 244,950 | 244,950 | 244,950 | 244,950 |
Test for equality of interaction term with column (1) | 0.1028 | 0.0199 | 0.0592 | |
| Â | Triple difference | |||
Eligible | −0.0040*** | −0.0342*** | −0.0402*** | −0.0492*** |
| Â | (0.0008) | (0.0029) | (0.0034) | (0.0038) |
Year 2012 | −0.0001 | 0.0092*** | 0.0083** | 0.0023 |
| Â | (0.0009) | (0.0033) | (0.0036) | (0.0037) |
Eligible × Year 2012 | 0.0003 | −0.0056 | −0.0091** | −0.0078* |
| Â | (0.0011) | (0.0037) | (0.0041) | (0.0044) |
Period III | 0.0030*** | 0.0092*** | 0.0029** | −0.0035** |
| Â | (0.0009) | (0.0012) | (0.0013) | (0.0014) |
Period III × Eligible | 0.0003 | −0.0025* | −0.0018 | −0.0006 |
| Â | (0.0011) | (0.0014) | (0.0015) | (0.0016) |
Period III × Year 2012 | −0.0002 | −0.0056*** | −0.0067*** | −0.0065*** |
| Â | (0.0013) | (0.0014) | (0.0014) | (0.0015) |
Period III × Eligible × Year 2012 | 0.0149*** | 0.0166*** | 0.0169*** | 0.0166*** |
| Â | (0.0017) | (0.0017) | (0.0018) | (0.0018) |
Constant | 0.0157*** | 0.1609*** | 0.2074*** | 0.2460*** |
| Â | (0.0006) | (0.0025) | (0.0028) | (0.0033) |
Observations | 528,962 | 528,962 | 528,962 | 528,962 |
Test for equality of triple interaction term with col (1) | 0.3105 | 0.2787 | 0.3631 | |