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Table 11 Complete OLS: period 1994–2002 vs 1998–2002; full vs restricted specification

From: Scars of early non-employment for low educated youth: evidence and policy lessons from Belgium

Continuous outcomes a: Log earnings Log hours worked
  g94-02 b g98-02 c g94-02 g98-02
  full spec. d Restricted spec. e Full spec. Restricted spec.
  (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Cluster gp gp gp gp gp gp
Early non-empl (% hours) –0.027*** –0.027*** –0.029*** –0.020*** –0.020*** –0.022***
  (0.004) (0.004) (0.005) (0.003) (0.003) (0.004)
UR_pe6 0.482** 0.617*** 0.594 0.334** 0.432*** 0.445
  (0.190) (0.179) (0.544) (0.138) (0.130) (0.393)
lin_grad_year –0.159 –0.114 0.811* –0.114 –0.082 0.635*
  (0.294) (0.284) (0.460) (0.213) (0.205) (0.333)
lin_grad_year |trend>3 0.903** 0.661* –1.032 0.668** 0.492* –0.795
  (0.400) (0.360) (0.701) (0.292) (0.260) (0.503)
lin_grad_year |trend>6 –0.460*    –0.334*   
  (0.258)    (0.187)   
avg_UR_pe3-6 –1.284*** –0.826** –1.879 –0.965*** –0.634** –1.481
  (0.451) (0.394) (1.373) (0.326) (0.289) (0.993)
min_UR_pe0-6 –0.572 –0.692 –3.140*** –0.313 –0.398 –2.204**
  (0.622) (0.590) (1.118) (0.439) (0.419) (0.791)
d_province2 –1.381* –0.913 –4.627*** –0.948* –0.612 –3.214**
  (0.711) (0.704) (1.597) (0.504) (0.503) (1.169)
d_province3 –2.175*** –1.756*** –4.127** –1.577*** –1.275*** –3.024**
  (0.607) (0.547) (1.740) (0.434) (0.392) (1.238)
d_province4 0.084 –0.109 –1.617 0.074 –0.069 –1.118
  (0.480) (0.456) (1.380) (0.350) (0.333) (0.984)
d_province5 0.899 0.741 1.125 0.667 0.552 0.743
  (0.610) (0.609) (1.902) (0.450) (0.451) (1.397)
lin_calend_year_prov2 0.050 0.075 0.126 0.035 0.055 0.064
  (0.139) (0.144) (0.307) (0.102) (0.106) (0.228)
lin_calend_year_prov3 0.072 0.147 –0.135 0.059 0.114 –0.105
  (0.114) (0.104) (0.137) (0.081) (0.075) (0.094)
lin_calend_year_prov4 –0.095 –0.007 –0.120 –0.068 –0.004 –0.102
  (0.127) (0.109) (0.304) (0.093) (0.080) (0.220)
lin_calend_year_prov5 –0.081 –0.102 –0.078 –0.059 –0.075 –0.041
  (0.107) (0.107) (0.357) (0.079) (0.080) (0.263)
birth cohort76 0.704 0.813 0.816 0.542 0.622 0.625
  (0.563) (0.510) (0.599) (0.413) (0.373) (0.437)
birth cohort78 0.426 0.487 0.471 0.319 0.364 0.353
  (0.368) (0.350) (0.353) (0.269) (0.255) (0.256)
HH members aged 0–11 –0.018 0.016 0.005 –0.046 –0.021 –0.027
  (0.112) (0.116) (0.136) (0.088) (0.090) (0.103)
Father education 0.001 –0.002 –0.017 0.000 –0.003 –0.014
  (0.026) (0.025) (0.041) (0.019) (0.019) (0.031)
Mother education –0.105*** –0.100*** –0.103** –0.077*** –0.073*** –0.074**
  (0.036) (0.035) (0.045) (0.027) (0.026) (0.033)
Years of delay in sec. edu –0.054 –0.143 –0.190 –0.042 –0.106 –0.140
  (0.111) (0.096) (0.166) (0.081) (0.071) (0.121)
General edu   –0.449 –0.161   –0.361 –0.145
   (0.299) (0.353)   (0.226) (0.265)
Live in single-parent 0.345    0.273   
  (0.463)    (0.347)   
Not live with parents 0.427*    0.348*   
  (0.243)    (0.179)   
HH members aged 12–17 0.168    0.126   
  (0.118)    (0.088)   
HH members aged 18–29 0.011    0.007   
  (0.116)    (0.087)   
HH members aged 30–64 –0.033    –0.011   
  (0.407)    (0.302)   
HH members aged 65+ –0.068    –0.029   
  (0.364)    (0.268)   
Technical edu 0.443    0.356   
  (0.327)    (0.247)   
Vocational edu 0.457    0.368*   
  (0.277)    (0.210)   
Apprenticeship/PT edu –0.188    –0.109   
  (0.453)    (0.337)   
Constant 15.056*** 12.908*** 29.987*** 10.779*** 9.282*** 22.069***
  (3.753) (3.432) (7.716) (2.695) (2.454) (5.520)
Observations 1,902 1,902 946 1,902 1,902 946
R-squared 0.090 0.084 0.097 0.089 0.084 0.098
  1. Standard errors between parentheses. Columns 1 and 4 estimate Eq. (2) by OLS considering the graduation period 1994–2002: they are equivalent to the estimations reported in columns 1 and 3 of Table 7. Columns 2 and 5 estimate the restricted specification discussed for the sensitivity exercise in Section 5.1, based on the graduation period 1994–2002. Columns 3 and 6 estimate the same restricted specification on the graduation period 1998–2002, which is used in the second sensitivity analysis. Standard errors are clustered by graduation year g and province of living at graduation p
  2. ***p <0.01, **p <0.05, *p <0.1
  3. aFor continuous outcomes we add value one before taking the log, so that non-salaried employed at the moment of evaluation are included with outcomes equal to zero after the logarithmic transformation
  4. bGraduation period 1994–2002 considered
  5. cGraduation period 1998–2002 considered: for this reason, the third graduation year spline l i n_g r a d_y e a r|t r e n d>6 is omitted
  6. dThe full specification corresponds to Eq. (2)
  7. eThe restricted specification is the one used in the second sensitivity analysis in Section 5.1