# Table 2 Beveridge curve estimations (whole sample 2004 Q1–2015 Q2)

1 2 3 4 5 6
Dependent variable Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate t − 1 0.967 (39.94)*** 0.894 (25.58)*** 0.977 (49.28)*** 0.971 (54.30)*** 0.853 (27.40)*** 0.885 (23.13)***
Job vacancy rate t −1.342 (−2.24)** −0.586 (−1.31) −0.657 (−1.36) −0.095 (−0.22) −6.620 (−2.74)*** −0.835 (−0.45)
Job vacancy rate t 2 19.878 (2.03)** 10.470 (1.41) 11.037 (1.38) 2.095 (0.31) 12.139 (1.24) 0.896 (0.14)
CRISIS t   0.007 (3.91)*** 0.008 (4.11)*** 0.019 (4.07)***   0.015 (0.44)
EPL t   −0.022 (−2.54)**    −0.049 (−2.74)*** −0.028 (−2.19)**
Job vacancy rate*CRISIS t     −0.954 (−2.83)***   −1.807 (−0.58)
Job vacancy rate*EPL t      2.086 (2.00)* 0.308 (0.41)
CRISIS*EPL t       0.002 (0.11)
Job vacancy rate*CRISIS*EPL       0.305 (0.25)
Constant term 0.022 (2.31)** 0.076 (2.87)*** 0.008 (1.15) 0.003 (0.49) 0.163 (3.52)*** 0.086 (0.47)
Effect of job vacancy if CRISIS = 1     −1.050532 (−2.77)***
Effect of job vacancy conditional on EPL      −4.534 (−3.25)***
Effect of job vacancy conditional on EPL if CRISIS = 1       −2.029 (−1.38)
Effect of job vacancy conditional on EPL if CRISIS = 0       −0.528 (−0.47)
Obs 46 46 46 46 46 46
F-test (p value) F(3, 42) = 1371.26 (0.000) F(5, 40) = 1447.58 (0.0000) F(4, 41) = 1431.98 (0.000) F(5, 40) = 1472.98(0.0000) F(5, 40) = 1322.13 (0.0000) F(9, 36) = 2090.63 (0.0000)
R 2 0.9921 0.9954 0.9944 0.9951 0.9942 0.9960
1. Note: Standard errors are corrected for autocorrelation using Newey-West procedure. ***, **, * denote statistical significance at 1, 5, and 10 % levels, respectively (t-statistics in parenthesis). The effect of job vacancy if CRISIS = 1 is the non-linear combination: Job vacancy rate + job vacancy rate*CRISIS (z-statistic in parenthesis). The effect of job vacancy conditional on EPL is the non-linear combination: Job vacancy rate + Job vacancy rate*EPL (z-statistics in parenthesis). The effect of job vacancy conditional on EPL if CRISIS = 1 is the non-linear combination: Job vacancy rate + Job vacancy rate*EPL + job vacancy rate*CRISIS + job vacancy rate*CRISIS*EPL (z-statistics in parethesis). The effect of job vacancy conditional on EPL if CRISIS = 0 is the non-linear combination: Job vacancy rate + Job vacancy rate*EPL (z-statistics in parenthesis)