# Table 4 Beveridge curve estimations (small sample 2005 Q4–2015 Q2)

1 2 3 4 5 6
Dependent variable Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate t − 1 0.938 (37.47)*** 0.879 (30.91)*** 0.956 (43.09)*** 0.959 (42.50)*** 0.849 (29.93)*** 0.882 (22.71)***
Job vacancy rate t −3.332 (−3.38)*** −2.325 (−3.68)*** −2.497 (−3.06)*** −1.435 (−1.36) −3.351 (−0.93) 1.392 (0.54)
Job vacancy rate t 2 75.063 92.90*** 60.712 (3.32)*** 63.647 (2.90)*** 36.123 (1.34) 66.531 (1.23) 46.855 (1.23)
CRISIS t   0.007 (3.28)*** 0.008 (3.23)*** 0.015 (2.44)**   0.031 (0.82)
EPL t   −0.021 (−2.87)***    −0.027 (−1.01) −0.011 (−0.49)
Job vacancy rate*CRISIS t     −0.577 (−1.56)   −2.899 (−0.93)
Job vacancy rate*EPL t      0.166 (0.08) −1.122 (−0.82)
CRISIS*EPL t       −0.007 (−0.39)
Job vacancy rate*CRISIS*EPL       0.864 (0.70)
Constant term 0.041 (3.61)*** 0.089 (4.06) 0.026 (2.53) 0.016 (1.32) 0.118 (2.02)** 0.055 (1.09)
Effect of job vacancy if CRISIS = 1     −2.012 (−2.36)**
Effect of job vacancy conditional on EPL      −3.185 (−1.87)*
Effect of job vacancy conditional on EPL if CRISIS = 1       −1.765 (−1.18)
Effect of job vacancy conditional on EPL if CRISIS = 0       0.270 (0.20)
Obs 39 39 39 39 39 39
F-test (p value) F(3, 35) = 1971.88 (0.000) F(5, 33) = 2968.04 (0.0000) F(4, 34) = 2588.66 (0.0000) F(5, 33) = 3014.69 (0.000) F(5, 33) = 1606.35 (0.0000) F(9, 29) = 3776.35 (0.000)
R 2 0.9936 0.9962 0.9952 0.9954 0.9950 0.9964
1. Note: Standard errors are corrected for autocorrelation using Newey-West procedure. ***, **, * denote statistical significance at 1, 5, and 10 % levels, respectively (t-statistics in parenthesis). The effect of job vacancy if CRISIS = 1 is the non-linear combination: Job vacancy rate + job vacancy rate*CRISIS (z-statistic in parenthesis). The effect of job vacancy conditional on EPL is the non-linear combination: Job vacancy rate + Job vacancy rate*EPL (z-statistics in parenthesis). The effect of job vacancy conditional on EPL if CRISIS = 1 is the non-linear combination: Job vacancy rate + Job vacancy rate*EPL + job vacancy rate*CRISIS + job vacancy rate*CRISIS*EPL (z-statistics in parenthesis). The effect of job vacancy conditional on EPL if CRISIS = 0 is the non-linear combination: Job vacancy rate + Job vacancy rate*EPL (z-statistics in parenthesis)