Table 4 Beveridge curve estimations (small sample 2005 Q4–2015 Q2)

Unemployment rate _t − 1

0.938 (37.47)***

0.879 (30.91)***

0.956 (43.09)***

0.959 (42.50)***

0.849 (29.93)***

0.882 (22.71)***

Job vacancy rate _t

−3.332 (−3.38)***

−2.325 (−3.68)***

−2.497 (−3.06)***

−1.435 (−1.36)

−3.351 (−0.93)

1.392 (0.54)

Job vacancy rate _t ²

75.063 92.90***

60.712 (3.32)***

63.647 (2.90)***

36.123 (1.34)

66.531 (1.23)

46.855 (1.23)

CRISIS _t

0.007 (3.28)***

0.008 (3.23)***

0.015 (2.44)**

0.031 (0.82)

EPL _t

−0.021 (−2.87)***

−0.027 (−1.01)

−0.011 (−0.49)

Job vacancy rate*CRISIS _t

−0.577 (−1.56)

−2.899 (−0.93)

Job vacancy rate*EPL _t

0.166 (0.08)

−1.122 (−0.82)

CRISIS*EPL _t

−0.007 (−0.39)

Job vacancy rate*CRISIS*EPL

0.864 (0.70)

Constant term

0.041 (3.61)***

0.089 (4.06)

0.026 (2.53)

0.016 (1.32)

0.118 (2.02)**

0.055 (1.09)

Effect of job vacancy if CRISIS = 1

−2.012 (−2.36)**

Effect of job vacancy conditional on EPL

−3.185 (−1.87)*

Effect of job vacancy conditional on EPL if CRISIS = 1

−1.765 (−1.18)

Effect of job vacancy conditional on EPL if CRISIS = 0

0.270 (0.20)

Obs

39

39

39

39

39

39

F-test (p value)

F(3, 35) = 1971.88 (0.000)

F(5, 33) = 2968.04 (0.0000)

F(4, 34) = 2588.66 (0.0000)

F(5, 33) = 3014.69 (0.000)

F(5, 33) = 1606.35 (0.0000)

F(9, 29) = 3776.35 (0.000)

R ²

0.9936

0.9962

0.9952

0.9954

0.9950

0.9964