Table 5 Probit model employment determinants. Estimated marginal effects in % points, by country and sex (2002–2011)

 Intercept (α ₂)

88.5***

91.6***

84.8***

89.5***

88.7***

89.6***

92.2***

94.8***

  50–54 (β _2,2)

−8.8***

−10.1***

0.8***

−6.0***

−1.3***

−8.5***

−6.2***

−10.0***

  55–59 (β _3,2)

−31.4***

−38.4***

−16.0***

−37.2***

−12.8***

−21.9***

−22.5***

−30.4***

  60–64 (β _4,2)

−62.2***

−69.1***

−59.0***

−76.1***

−51.4***

−60.2***

−56.1***

−71.3***

  Medium (γ _2,2)

−14.4***

−10.1***

−8.8***

−6.5***

−11.0***

−14.8***

−9.8***

−6.0***

  Low (γ _3,2)

−33.8***

−26.8***

−21.3***

−17.6***

−25.5***

−28.7***

−26.6***

−14.1***

  Abroad (δ _2,2)

−15.7***

−16.1***

−11.3***

−6.9***

−5.8***

−5.2***

−14.0***

−19.7***

  Married (η _2,2)

−2.0***

9.2***

−1.1***

9.2***

−7.0***

9.4***

−6.4***

7.9***

  Widow (η _3,2)

0.0

4.1***

2.0***

4.0***

−2.7***

1.8***

−4.8***

0.3

 2007–2011 \( \left({\tilde{\alpha}}_3\right) \)

1.8***

0.3

1.5***

1.6***

1.7***

3.2***

1.3***

−0.2

  50–54 \( \left({\tilde{\beta}}_{2,3}\right) \)

2.3***

3.1***

1.0***

3.1***

1.4***

1.0*

1.6***

1.4**

  55–59 \( \left({\tilde{\beta}}_{3,3}\right) \)

6.7***

6.5***

3.5***

6.7***

3.5***

1.7**

5.7***

8.4***

  60–64 \( \left({\tilde{\beta}}_{4,3}\right) \)

3.4***

1.8***

1.7***

4.2***

11.1***

5.9***

6.6***

8.5***

  Medium \( \left({\tilde{\gamma}}_{2,3}\right) \)

0.6

0.3

−0.4

−2.8***

0.1

0.0

0.0

−0.9**

  Low \( \left({\tilde{\gamma}}_{3,3}\right) \)

0.3

−1.3*

−1.7***

−4.0***

−1.3*

−3.7***

−1.3***

−1.8***

  Abroad \( \left({\tilde{\delta}}_{2,3}\right) \)

−0.2

1.1*

−0.6*

0.4

−3.3***

−1.2**

−1.6***

1.9***

  Married \( \left({\tilde{\eta}}_{2,3}\right) \)

−0.2

−0.2

0.5***

−0.6***

1.5***

0.6***

3.0***

0.8***

  Widow \( \left({\tilde{\eta}}_{3,3}\right) \)

0.0

0.7

0.7***

0.2

1.0*

1.0**

1.2**

0.9

  # obs. (×1000)

238.2

228.7

838.8

782.0

469.2

465.4

414.8

400.6