Skip to main content

Table 5 Probit model employment determinants. Estimated marginal effects in % points, by country and sex (2002–2011)

From: Old-age employment and hours of work trends: empirical analysis for four European countries

Variable Belgium France Germany The Netherlands
Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men
Period 2002–2006
 Intercept (α 2) 88.5*** 91.6*** 84.8*** 89.5*** 88.7*** 89.6*** 92.2*** 94.8***
 Age (ref: 25–49)
  50–54 (β 2,2) −8.8*** −10.1*** 0.8*** −6.0*** −1.3*** −8.5*** −6.2*** −10.0***
  55–59 (β 3,2) −31.4*** −38.4*** −16.0*** −37.2*** −12.8*** −21.9*** −22.5*** −30.4***
  60–64 (β 4,2) −62.2*** −69.1*** −59.0*** −76.1*** −51.4*** −60.2*** −56.1*** −71.3***
 Education (ref: high)
  Medium (γ 2,2) −14.4*** −10.1*** −8.8*** −6.5*** −11.0*** −14.8*** −9.8*** −6.0***
  Low (γ 3,2) −33.8*** −26.8*** −21.3*** −17.6*** −25.5*** −28.7*** −26.6*** −14.1***
 Country of birth (ref: country)
  Abroad (δ 2,2) −15.7*** −16.1*** −11.3*** −6.9*** −5.8*** −5.2*** −14.0*** −19.7***
 Marital status (ref. unmarried)
  Married (η 2,2) −2.0*** 9.2*** −1.1*** 9.2*** −7.0*** 9.4*** −6.4*** 7.9***
  Widow (η 3,2) 0.0 4.1*** 2.0*** 4.0*** −2.7*** 1.8*** −4.8*** 0.3
Period (ref: 2002–2006)
 2007–2011 \( \left({\tilde{\alpha}}_3\right) \) 1.8*** 0.3 1.5*** 1.6*** 1.7*** 3.2*** 1.3*** −0.2
Crossed effects (2007–2011)
 Age (ref: 25–49)
  50–54 \( \left({\tilde{\beta}}_{2,3}\right) \) 2.3*** 3.1*** 1.0*** 3.1*** 1.4*** 1.0* 1.6*** 1.4**
  55–59 \( \left({\tilde{\beta}}_{3,3}\right) \) 6.7*** 6.5*** 3.5*** 6.7*** 3.5*** 1.7** 5.7*** 8.4***
  60–64 \( \left({\tilde{\beta}}_{4,3}\right) \) 3.4*** 1.8*** 1.7*** 4.2*** 11.1*** 5.9*** 6.6*** 8.5***
 Education (ref: high)
  Medium \( \left({\tilde{\gamma}}_{2,3}\right) \) 0.6 0.3 −0.4 −2.8*** 0.1 0.0 0.0 −0.9**
  Low \( \left({\tilde{\gamma}}_{3,3}\right) \) 0.3 −1.3* −1.7*** −4.0*** −1.3* −3.7*** −1.3*** −1.8***
 Country of birth (ref: country)
  Abroad \( \left({\tilde{\delta}}_{2,3}\right) \) −0.2 1.1* −0.6* 0.4 −3.3*** −1.2** −1.6*** 1.9***
 Marital status (ref. single)
  Married \( \left({\tilde{\eta}}_{2,3}\right) \) −0.2 −0.2 0.5*** −0.6*** 1.5*** 0.6*** 3.0*** 0.8***
  Widow \( \left({\tilde{\eta}}_{3,3}\right) \) 0.0 0.7 0.7*** 0.2 1.0* 1.0** 1.2** 0.9
 Sample size
  # obs. (×1000) 238.2 228.7 838.8 782.0 469.2 465.4 414.8 400.6
  1. Notes: in italic, estimated employment probability in % points for the reference category
  2. ***, **, *Statistically significant coefficients at 1, 5, and 10 % thresholds (χ 2 test), respectively (robust estimation)