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Table 10 Correlation coefficients between cyclical components of male and female participation rates, male and female discouraged worker rates and lagged GDP and unemployment rate computed on the basis of the HP filter estimates

From: The impact of easy and early access to old-age benefits on exits from the labour market: a macro-micro analysis

Variable

Hodrick-Prescott filter

Male participation rate 45–64

Male participation rate 45+

Female participation rate 45–59

Female participation rate 45+

Male discouraged worker rate 45–64

Male discouraged worker rate 45+

Female discouraged worker rate 45–59

Female discouraged worker rate 45+

GDP−1

−0.193

0.050

−0.302

−0.193

−0.235

−0.280a

0.159

0.068

GDP−2

−0.038

0.134

−0.141

−0.115

−0.295a

−0.337b

0.176

0.054

GDP−3

0.025

0.142

−0.032

−0.031

−0.343b

−0.382b

0.244

0.093

GDP−4

0.146

0.046

0.013

−0.070

−0.384b

−0.420c

0.323b

0.145

GDP−5

0.144

−0.026

0.076

−0.036

−0.425c

−0.451c

0.335b

0.134

GDP−6

0.066

−0.137

0.168

0.043

−0.461c

−0.475c

0.296a

0.077

GDP−7

−0.008

−0.241

0.206

0.002

−0.485c

−0.491c

0.265a

0.034

GDP−8

−0.185

−0.323

0.204

0.017

−0.514c

−0.505c

0.151

−0.089

GDP−9

−0.234

−0.289

0.287a

0.156

−0.537c

−0.508c

−0.035

−0.279a

GDP−10

−0.224

−0.262

0.364b

0.262a

−0.542c

−0.503c

−0.153

−0.395c

GDP−11

−0.257

−0.256

0.376b

0.304b

−0.529c

−0.479c

−0.268a

−0.500c

GDP−12

−0.260

−0.158

0.449c

0.440c

−0.484c

−0.428c

−0.299b

−0.513c

u −1

0.219

0.249

0.446c

0.397c

0.186

0.248

−0.174

−0.111

u −2

0.197

0.208

0.298b

0.248

0.307b

0.364b

−0.131

−0.015

u −3

0.180

0.204

0.160

0.149

0.426c

0.474c

−0.084

0.086

u −4

0.168

0.191

0.017

0.083

0.538c

0.574c

−0.036

0.184

u −5

0.168

0.172

−0.123

−0.020

0.636c

0.661c

0.012

0.278a

u −6

0.165

0.132

−0.262a

−0.152

0.718c

0.730c

0.059

0.362b

u −7

0.163

0.106

−0.382b

−0.277a

0.780c

0.780c

0.105

0.436c

u −8

0.170

0.082

−0.447c

−0.367a

0.818c

0.804c

0.154

0.504c

u −9

0.195

0.089

−0.509c

−0.413c

0.823c

0.794c

0.202

0.558c

u −10

0.234

0.100

−0.575c

−0.471c

0.799c

0.755c

0.238

0.587c

u −11

0.235

0.051

−0.598c

−0.505c

0.752c

0.699c

0.248

0.580c

u −12

0.228

−0.015

−0.611c

−0.610c

0.682c

0.623c

0.239

0.545c

  1. aSignificant at the 10% level; bsignificant at the 5% level; csignificant at the 1% level
  2. Source: authors’ calculations; data sources: LFS and Central Statistical Office Poland