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Table 10 Correlation coefficients between cyclical components of male and female participation rates, male and female discouraged worker rates and lagged GDP and unemployment rate computed on the basis of the HP filter estimates

From: The impact of easy and early access to old-age benefits on exits from the labour market: a macro-micro analysis

Variable Hodrick-Prescott filter
Male participation rate 45–64 Male participation rate 45+ Female participation rate 45–59 Female participation rate 45+ Male discouraged worker rate 45–64 Male discouraged worker rate 45+ Female discouraged worker rate 45–59 Female discouraged worker rate 45+
GDP−1 −0.193 0.050 −0.302 −0.193 −0.235 −0.280a 0.159 0.068
GDP−2 −0.038 0.134 −0.141 −0.115 −0.295a −0.337b 0.176 0.054
GDP−3 0.025 0.142 −0.032 −0.031 −0.343b −0.382b 0.244 0.093
GDP−4 0.146 0.046 0.013 −0.070 −0.384b −0.420c 0.323b 0.145
GDP−5 0.144 −0.026 0.076 −0.036 −0.425c −0.451c 0.335b 0.134
GDP−6 0.066 −0.137 0.168 0.043 −0.461c −0.475c 0.296a 0.077
GDP−7 −0.008 −0.241 0.206 0.002 −0.485c −0.491c 0.265a 0.034
GDP−8 −0.185 −0.323 0.204 0.017 −0.514c −0.505c 0.151 −0.089
GDP−9 −0.234 −0.289 0.287a 0.156 −0.537c −0.508c −0.035 −0.279a
GDP−10 −0.224 −0.262 0.364b 0.262a −0.542c −0.503c −0.153 −0.395c
GDP−11 −0.257 −0.256 0.376b 0.304b −0.529c −0.479c −0.268a −0.500c
GDP−12 −0.260 −0.158 0.449c 0.440c −0.484c −0.428c −0.299b −0.513c
u −1 0.219 0.249 0.446c 0.397c 0.186 0.248 −0.174 −0.111
u −2 0.197 0.208 0.298b 0.248 0.307b 0.364b −0.131 −0.015
u −3 0.180 0.204 0.160 0.149 0.426c 0.474c −0.084 0.086
u −4 0.168 0.191 0.017 0.083 0.538c 0.574c −0.036 0.184
u −5 0.168 0.172 −0.123 −0.020 0.636c 0.661c 0.012 0.278a
u −6 0.165 0.132 −0.262a −0.152 0.718c 0.730c 0.059 0.362b
u −7 0.163 0.106 −0.382b −0.277a 0.780c 0.780c 0.105 0.436c
u −8 0.170 0.082 −0.447c −0.367a 0.818c 0.804c 0.154 0.504c
u −9 0.195 0.089 −0.509c −0.413c 0.823c 0.794c 0.202 0.558c
u −10 0.234 0.100 −0.575c −0.471c 0.799c 0.755c 0.238 0.587c
u −11 0.235 0.051 −0.598c −0.505c 0.752c 0.699c 0.248 0.580c
u −12 0.228 −0.015 −0.611c −0.610c 0.682c 0.623c 0.239 0.545c
  1. aSignificant at the 10% level; bsignificant at the 5% level; csignificant at the 1% level
  2. Source: authors’ calculations; data sources: LFS and Central Statistical Office Poland