The impact of easy and early access to old-age benefits on exits from the labour market: a macro-micro analysis

IZA Journal of European Labor Studies

Table 8 Logistic regression of moving from unemployment to inactivity for workers not receiving any kind of old-age benefit in t ₀

Workers not receiving any kind of old-age benefit in t ₀
	Odds ratio	Standard error	Odds ratio	Standard error
Age (years)
50–54	1		1
55–59	2.607^a	0.343	2.106^a	0.289
60–64	9.713^a	2.952	7.763^a	2.387
Sex
Males	1		1
Females	1.733^a	0.216	1.816^a	0.235
Δunemployment rate⁻ ^b	0.696^a	0.029	0.750^a	0.031
Old-age benefits as a source of income in t ₁
No	1
Yes	4.714^a	1.023
Main source of income in t ₁
Old-age benefit^c			1
Unemployment benefit			0.121^a	0.070
Social welfare^d			0.048^a	0.021
Invalidity allowance			0.155^a	0.072
Log likelihood	−874.51		−841.02
LR	230.57 (df = 5)		297.54 (df = 7)
p value	0.00		0.00
McFadden’s adj. R ²	0.110		0.142
Sensitivity	62.53%^e		64.56%^e
Specificity	68.61%^e		70.44%^e
Correctly classified	67.07%^e		68.95%^e

The sample comprised individuals aged either 50–59 (females) and 50–64 (males) or workers aged 50+; annual data for the period 2004–2010. Sample size for both models—1749 observations
^asignificant at the 1% level
^bRefers to a 1 percentage point change in the negative change in the unemployment rate
^cOld-age benefits—pension or retirement benefits
^dSocial welfare—social benefit, non-income source, dependent
^eCut-off level in the classification table 0.2533 (based on the share of the outflow in the whole sample)
Source: authors’ calculations; data sources: LFS