- Original article
- Open Access
Labour migration to the UK from Eastern partnership countries
© Clark and Drinkwater; licensee Springer. 2014
Received: 7 October 2013
Accepted: 9 April 2014
Published: 5 August 2014
Stocks and flows of migrant workers from EaP countries in the UK are relatively small, and flows have declined recently following changes to UK immigration policy and the onset of recession. The demographic profile of migrants from EaP countries is similar to that of EUA8 migrants but employment rates have been much lower. A large proportion of migrants to the UK from EaP countries are highly educated but this has not led to such high levels of occupational attainment as groups such as EU14 migrants. Despite the potential for increased migration to fill skill gaps, immigration policies and attitudes to immigrants are likely to restrict future flows.
The United Kingdom (UK) has a long history of receiving large numbers of migrant workers. In particular, successive cohorts of immigrants from former Commonwealth colonies, especially in the West Indies and the Indian sub-continent, started arriving at the end of the 1940s (Hatton and Wheatley Price 2005). Many of these migrant workers took up positions in sectors experiencing labour shortages, such as transport, the National Health Service and other public services, and self-employment was also an important form of activity for some of the migrant groups (Clark and Drinkwater 1998). Over the last decade, however, the UK has also become one of the main destination countries for immigrants from various parts of Europe. For example, data on National Insurance Numbers issued to overseas nationals (NINos) indicate that there was a five-fold increase in the number of “new” immigrant workers arriving in the UK from European countries between 2002 and 2007, rising from around 103,000 to over 500,0001. As a result, the percentage of NINo registrations made by Europeans almost doubled, rising from 33 per cent to 63 per cent over this period2. Much of this increase can be explained by the migration that followed the enlargement of the European Union in May 2004, since the UK was one of only three member states at the time to open their border to migrant workers from the new member states in Central and Eastern Europe3. Although the number of NINo registrations made by Europeans has fallen since the start of the recession, it stood at 342,000 in 2010 and continued to account for over a half of the total NINo registrations made in the UK that year.
In addition to the migration flows that have followed enlargement of the European Union, there have also been important changes over the last decade in policy in the UK towards immigrants from outside the European Economic Area (EEA). In particular, the overall thrust of immigration policy in the UK since 2005 has been to restrict entry by non-EEA workers to skilled occupations. The main change was the introduction of the Points Based System (PBS), which began in 2008 to regulate inflows of immigrant workers from outside the EEA. The PBS consolidated in excess of 80 work and study routes into the UK, which included the Highly Skilled Migrant Programme and Work Permits, into five main tiers and replaced the previous system of immigration (Devitt 2012). These five tiers relate to highly skilled migrants, medium and highly skilled migrants with a job offer, quota based low-skilled schemes to fill temporary labour shortages, students and youth mobility and temporary workers.
Changes have also occurred to two low-skilled schemes, which lie outside the PBS. These are the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme (SAWS) and the Sector Based Schemes (SBS). From 2008 these were targeted exclusively at Bulgarian and Romanian nationals allowing a quota of around 20,000 each year to enter the UK for up to six months to work in the agricultural sector. From 2014 the SAWS and SBS were closed to all workers. However, prior to the accession of Bulgaria and Romania to the European Union in 2007, these schemes had been open to migrants from other countries and large numbers of Ukrainians, Belarusians and Moldovans were employed on them in the mid-2000 s4. For example, Salt (2009) reports that Ukrainians accounted for 33 per cent of the 16,127 workers on the SAWS and 38 per cent of the 3,586 workers on the SBS in 2006. In 2004, there were 2,258 workers from Belarus registered on the SAWS and more than 1,000 Moldovans were on the same scheme in each year between 2005 and 2007. Therefore, the changes in immigration policy that have occurred in the UK over the last decade are of particular importance to Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries because potential migrant workers to the UK from these countries are not able to benefit from the freedom of movement enjoyed by individuals from the European Union, including from the member states that joined in 2004 and neither can younger migrants from EaP countries now enter the UK on the SAWS or SBS. In addition to impacting on the size of migration flows from EaP countries, these policy changes are likely to have had an effect on the composition of migrant workers. For example, migration flows from EaP countries are likely to have become less dominated by the youngest age groups and biased more towards women and highly educated individuals.
The changes in migration flows and in immigration policy should also be considered with reference to the UK’s economy, which was in a healthy position from 2000 up until 2007. This period produced average growth rates of 2.75 per cent per annum and annual unemployment rates of around 5 per cent. However, since the start of the global financial crisis in late 2007, the economy has deteriorated considerably. The UK was officially in recession in 2008 and 2009, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) falling by around 6 per cent (Gregg and Wadsworth 2010). As a result of the poor state of the economy, unemployment has increased and has hovered around 8 per cent in recent years. Very high levels of youth unemployment are a major concern (Blanchflower and Bell 2010), with the unemployment rate for 16 and 17 year olds at almost 40 per cent, and that for 18-24 year olds at 20 per cent. Given that immigrants are thought to compete with younger native-born workers for jobs and that employment levels amongst immigrants have continued to rise – while falling for the native-born (ONS 2012)–then public attitudes towards immigration in the UK tend to be quite negative. For example, Blinder (2011) reports evidence from cross-national survey data (Transatlantic Trends 2010) to suggest that people from the UK have more negative views towards immigrants than people from other Western countries. In particular, the percentage of respondents reporting that “there are too many immigrants” and “immigration is more a problem than an opportunity” was higher in the UK than it was in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United States. Furthermore, there is now a consistent opposition to immigration across all major political parties in the UK and the coalition government is committed to reducing net migration from hundreds of thousands to “tens of thousands”.
In this paper we describe the migration flows and labour market outcomes of migrants from EaP countries and compare them with other groups of migrants and established workers. Both stocks and flows of EaP migrants are small relative to other immigrant groups and flows are found to be responsive to GDP growth, but have been mainly driven by changes in immigration policy. We find that while EaP migrants exhibit some similarities to the EUA8 migrant group, there are some important differences too, particularly in terms of human capital and employment outcomes. We note that EaP countries have high stocks of human capital in STEM-related subjects which are in demand in the UK, however in the absence of significant changes in immigration policy, future flows of EaP workers to the UK are predicted to remain small in magnitude.
The paper is organised in the following manner. The next section contains a discussion of recent inflows of migrant workers from EaP countries to the UK, along with some information on the stocks of migrants from these countries. Subsequently the focus is on the demographic characteristics of migrants from EaP countries, mainly using the Labour Force Survey (LFS). The use of this dataset also enables similar information to be provided on comparison groups of migrants in the UK and the paper moves on to examine the labour market characteristics of the same groups that are analysed in the preceding section. Some concluding comments can then be found in the final section, especially in relation to policy implications.
Flows of migrants from EaP Countries to the UK and migrant stocks
Data on inflows of migrants from EaP countries are obtained from administrative data published by the Home Office. The data identify passengers given leave to enter between 2004 and 2010 for four different reasons: employment, study, family and other. The main focus is on individuals given leave to enter the UK for employment purposes but aggregate information on all passengers arriving from the six EaP countries is reported in Additional file 1: Table S1. The table suggests that although the total number of passengers to the UK from EaP countries has increased by over a third between 2004 and 2010, they only account for a very small proportion of total passengers to the UK. In 2004, only 0.7 per cent of passengers of all nationalities came from EaP countries, rising to 1.0 per cent in 2010. Around 60 per cent of EaP passengers in each year came from the Ukraine, with around 15 per cent from Belarus and around 9 per cent from Azerbaijan.
The breakdown in the number of passengers into its four constituent categories is shown in Additional file 1: Table S2 for EaP countries and for all nationalities. However, the vast majority of passengers to the UK are in the “Other” category. This category mainly consists of “visitors”, and includes both ordinary and business visitors, as well as people returning from a temporary absence abroad and passengers in transit. Following the “Other” category, employment is the next most important category for passengers given leave to enter the UK for individuals from EaP countries. However, the numbers entering via this route have fallen for this group of countries, especially since 2007. In contrast, the number of people entering the UK via the study route has increased by over 1,000 since 2005 but EaP countries still only account for less than 1 per cent of the total number of student visas issued. The family category is the smallest, with only a total of 435 individuals from EaP countries entering the UK on this type of visa in 2010.
Employment entrants from EaP countries to the UK in the Pre-PBS period by category
All EaP countries
Employment entrants from EaP countries to the UK in the PBS period by category
Pre-PBS and Non-PBS categories
Dependents: employment and PBS
All EaP countries
Regression model of EaP NINo registrations 2002Q1-2013Q4
The NINo database also indicates that the total number of registrations from EaP countries peaked in 2007 at 3,860, which was the same year as total NINo registrations reached a peak in the UK. However in that year, EaP nationals accounted for less than 0.5 per cent of total NINo registrations in the UK. This percentage was highest in 2004, when 0.83 per cent of all NINo registrations were made by EaP nationals. This percentage has declined since then, falling to under 0.4 per cent in each year since 2007. More than half of NINo registrations from EaP countries in each year were made by Ukrainian nationals. This percentage was highest in 2002, at just over 62 per cent, and lowest in 2009, when Ukrainians accounted for 51.7 per cent of NINo registrations from EaP countries.
UK Resident population, immigrants and people born in EaP countries, 2001
% of all immigrants
All EaP countries
Gender and broad age of migrants from EaP countries in the UK (in per cent)
Total migrants from EaP countries
All EaP Migrants
Despite the relatively large inflows from some EaP countries in the mid-2000s highlighted in Figures 1 and 2, the relatively small estimated populations from EaP countries in the UK suggest that a high proportion of the migrant workers have subsequently left. This is certainly likely to be true of workers who were employed on the SAWS and SBS. There are only a few studies on return migration from the UK. Dustmann and Weiss (2007) use the LFS to examine return migration for a composite group of immigrants to the UK but their sample only covers the period 1992-2002. Pollard et al. (2008) estimate that perhaps half of post-enlargement EUA8 migrants had returned to their home countries between 2004 and 2007. This may provide some indication of the propensity for return migration amongst people from EaP countries, although EUA8 migrants are able to come to back to the UK to work without restriction, which is not the case for migrants from EaP countries.
There are few reliable estimates of the number of illegal immigrants in the United Kingdom. However, the size of this group is likely to have increased over the last decade. For example, Gordon et al. (2009) provide a central estimate of 618,000 illegal immigrants in the United Kingdom in 2007. This compares with a central estimate of 430,000 by Woodbridge (2005) for 2001. There is some uncertainty around these estimates, with Gordon et al. (2009) suggesting that the true figure for 2007 is likely to lie somewhere between 417,000 and 863,000. Furthermore, neither study provides a breakdown of their estimates by country of origin, but the majority of illegal immigrants are estimated to be failed asylum seekers rather than overstayers or illegal entrants (Gordon et al.2009). Failed asylum seekers originate from a wide range of countries, especially the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Eastern Europe, whereas overstayers are typically from Asia and Africa (Gordon et al. 2009). This suggests that the total number of illegal immigrants from EaP countries in the United Kingdom is also likely to be very small, especially in comparison to the total population of legal immigrants, which is estimated to be around 8 million according to the recently published figures from the 2011 Census.
Demographic characteristics of migrants from EaP countries to the UK
This section is based on the analysis of data from the Quarterly LFS. The dataset used to examine the demographic characteristics of migrants from EaP countries resident in the UK has been constructed by merging (52) successive quarters of LFS data. In particular, information from the first quarter of 1999 has been combined with files up to the fourth quarter of 2011. This has been done because of the small number of observations in any one quarter, and identifiers for migrants from all EaP countries have only been included in the LFS from the start of 1999. Migrants from EaP countries have been defined according to their country of birth. To prevent double-counting, only those respondents in their first wave of interview are included in the dataset8. Drinkwater et al. (2009) contains further details on using the pooled LFS data to examine the demographic characteristics of immigrants from groups of countries. Given sample sizes, there is a need to combine the EaP countries together (with Ukraine and other EaP countries the most disaggregated split that is generally possible). Comparisons are made with other European migrants
In order to initially examine the characteristics in the sample of migrants from EaP countries, Table 5 contains information on just gender and age, the latter just split according to whether the individual is of working age. The table shows that a slight majority of migrants from EaP countries in the sample are male. There are some differences between countries, with this percentage varying from 46.2 per cent amongst Belarusian migrants to 51.4 per cent for migrants born in the Ukraine. However, the total number of observations in the sample for migrants from Belarus is small. The table also reveals the relatively high percentage of Ukrainian migrants who are not of working age since only around 57 per cent of this group are aged between 16 and 59 for women and 16 and 64 for men9. In contrast, over 80 per cent of non-Ukrainian migrants from EaP countries in the sample are of working age. The reason why a relatively low percentage of Ukrainian migrants are of working age is because 36 per cent of this group are aged 65 or over. This is consistent with the high percentage arriving in the UK before 1990 (37 per cent, compared with 5 per cent of migrants from other EaP countries).
Demographic characteristics of working age migrants from EaP countries and comparison groups
Arrived before 1990
Arrived in 1990s
Table 6 indicates that the information on gender in the LFS accord with the NINo database, which shows that recent migration flows from EaP countries have been dominated by women, since over 60 per cent of working-age migrants from EaP countries are female The age distribution of working-age migrants from EaP countries is more similar to that of EUA8 migrants than to migrants from other parts of Europe living in the UK. For example, around 8 per cent of working-age migrants from EaP countries and EUA8 are aged over 50 compared to over a quarter of EU14 migrants and 20 per cent from other parts of Europe. However, EUA8 migrants tend to be even more concentrated within the younger age categories than migrants from EaP countries due to the large inflows of EUA8 migrants that have arrived in the UK since 2004. Therefore, many of the differences in the age distribution will be strongly affected by the arrival patterns of the migrant groups.
Table 6 also confirms that the majority of migrants from EaP countries and the EUA8 are relatively recent arrivals. In particular, only a low percentage of migrants from EaP countries (2 per cent) and the EUA8 (7 per cent) arrived in the UK before 1990, compared to 60 per cent of migrants from EU14 and 46 per cent from other European countries. The bulk of migrants from EaP countries in the sample entered the UK between the early 1990s and mid-2000s, with 40 per cent arriving in the 1990s and 34 per cent between 2000 and 2003. This pattern of arrival is consistent with the decline in the inflows of migrants from EaP countries since the introduction of new migration policies in the second half of the 2000s. The heavy concentration of EUA8 migrants arriving between 2004 and 2007 is clearly visible, which also reveals that arrivals slowed after recession hit the UK.
The percentage from each group that are observed in particular educational categories is also reported in Table 6. These categories have been constructed from the variable indicating the age that the individual left full-time education, which is available in the LFS. This variable is used because of the difficulty in examining educational qualifications for migrants, since a large proportion would have obtained these in their home countries and so there may not be an equivalent qualification in the host country. As a result, the highest qualification for a high percentage of immigrants in the LFS is “Other”. Three main educational categories are defined: low education (left full-time education before the age of 18); medium education (left between the ages of 18 and 20); and high education (left after the age of 20). Similar educational categories have been used by other studies of immigrants in the UK (see Dustmann et al.2008). The percentage of migrants with high levels of education is also highest for migrants from EaP countries. There is, however, also a relatively high percentage of this group in the low education category in comparison to EUA8 migrants. The relatively high levels of education displayed by migrants from EaP countries and the EUA8 will be related to age, since younger and more recent migrants tend to be better educated. In addition, this may be partly due to different legal frameworks for migration from European countries, since there is now freedom of movement from the EUA8, as well as from the EU14, whereas migration from outside the European Union is likely to be more skill-biased.
Finally, Table 6 indicates that around two-thirds of working-age migrants from EaP countries in the sample are married, which is slightly below the figure for Other European migrants but greater than that observed for migrants from the EU. The geographical location of migrants from EaP countries is similar to that of migrants from other European countries, with just under 45% of migrants from this group residing in London and 28% in the South of England. In contrast, migrants from the EU have a more dispersed location pattern, including a relatively high percentage living in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Labour market outcomes of European migrants in the UK
Economic activity of working-age migrants from EaP countries and comparison groups (in per cent)
Unemployment is also relatively high amongst migrants from EaP countries, with an unemployment rate (expressed as a percentage of economically active people) of almost 13 per cent. The unemployment rate is less than 6 per cent for migrants from the European Union and 8.3 per cent for other European migrants. The economic inactivity rate is also relatively high for migrants from EaP countries but is lower than for migrants from other European countries. This is particularly the case for women, since the economic inactivity rate for is around 30 per cent compared to 44% for female migrants from other European countries. Drinkwater and Robinson (2011) find that a relatively high percentage of migrants from other European countries (including people born in EaP countries) claim benefits in the UK, especially in comparison to people born in the EUA8 and EU14. This is true for both men and women, with relatively high levels of income support and sickness/disability claims observed for both sexes. This could be the result of higher levels of discouraged workers following job displacement, whilst the relatively low percentage of benefit claimants amongst EUA8 migrants is likely to have been influenced by the restrictions on access to benefits in the UK by this group following EU enlargement. Drinkwater and Robinson (2011) report that whilst social assistance claims initially increase with years since migration they do so at a decreasing rate and there is a varying impact for different migrant groups in the UK. The turning point for the effect of years since migration on social assistance claims is highest for EU14 migrants (29 years in the UK) and amongst the lowest for Other European migrants (9 years in the UK). This is likely to reflect a higher incidence of social assistance claims due to ageing for EU14 migrants, whilst for Other Europeans it may reflect a different mix of origin countries across migrant cohorts.
Probit estimates for the probability of employment for working-age migrants from EaP countries and comparison groups
Arrived in 1990s
Probit decomposition of the probability of employment for working-age migrants from EaP countries versus comparison groups
Mean differential in employment probability
Occupation of working-age migrants from EaP countries and comparison groups (in per cent)
Sector of employment for working-age migrants from EaP countries and comparison groups (in per cent)
The relatively low concentration of migrant workers from EaP countries in public services is confirmed by the statistics reported in the bottom row of the table, which show the percentage employed in the public sector. This is highest for EU14 migrants, followed fairly closely by migrants from other European countries. Only 11 per cent of migrants from EaP countries are employed in the public sector, although this is over 4 percentage points higher than the equivalent figure for EUA8 migrants. The percentage of migrants from EaP countries in production and manufacturing is also relatively low, especially in comparison to EUA8 migrants. Further examination of this category indicates that only a relatively small percentage of the sample of workers from EaP countries is employed in agriculture. The proportion observed in production and manufacturing will, however, be influenced by the absence of some migrant workers from these sectors from the LFS sampling frame because of the higher incidence of short term and irregular employment, implying that the actual percentage of EaP migrants employed in these sectors is likely to be higher.
The analysis of various data sources above suggests that both the stocks and flows of migrants from EaP countries are relatively small in comparison to other migrant groups in the UK and that, while stocks have grown between Censuses, the flows have declined in recent years in response both to the economic situation and the tightening of immigration rules. EaP migrants share some of the characteristics of the much larger group of EUA8 migrants who have arrived in the UK since 2004, for example in terms of their age structure, years since migration and geographic location in the UK however they are more likely than EUA8 migrants to be have both high and low levels of educational qualifications. Their employment rates are poorer and they experience higher levels of unemployment and in activity than one would expect given their characteristics. Furthermore, in terms of how the UK labour market transforms their human capital and demographic characteristics into employment and occupational attainment, they appear to be more like workers from the Other European group rather than EUA8 or EU14 workers.
The EU’s Eastern Partnership strategy views the nations discussed in this paper as an important group with whom increased integration yields the possibility of mutual economic benefit and enhanced political association (European Commission 2012). A longer term objective of this strategy is to support the mobility of EaP nationals hence the extent to which labour market integration with the UK is possible for EaP countries has formed the background to our study. The overwhelming conclusion must be that there is little prospect for future large-scale EaP migration to the UK. As noted earlier, numbers have declined as immigration rules have become more restrictive and, while the UK economy is now recovering following the financial crisis, the regression results reported in Table 3 suggest that even a sustained period of positive economic growth is unlikely to increase migration flows by a substantial amount.
The only potential caveat to this relates to the fact that a high proportion of EaP migrants are relatively well qualified. The switch to the PBS has focused attention in the UK on the types of high skilled migrants that the country needs to fill strategic skills gaps. STEM qualifications have been noted as a key area (Clarke 2011; George et al. 2012) and there is some evidence that the EaP countries may represent a source of STEM-qualified workers. UNESCO provides estimates of the subject of graduation of university graduates for a variety of countries and the data suggest that both Ukraine and Belarus have amongst the highest proportions of graduates in the world in the areas of “science, engineering, manufacturing and construction”11. As a proportion of all graduates 26% in Ukraine and 27% in Belarus are in those areas, comparing favourably with 27% in Germany, 22% in the UK and 15% in the US. The figure for Poland, the major source of EUA8 migrants in the 2000s, is also 15%, whilst for Bulgaria it is 19%.
However there seems little prospect that in the short to medium term the climate in the UK is likely to become more open to large scale migration flows given how hostile to immigration public attitudes remain. This is in spite of evidence suggesting that there is little (negative) impact on the labour market (Dustmann and Fabbri 2005; Blanchflower et al.2007; Lemos and Portes 2008), whilst there can be very positive effects on public finances (Gott and Johnston 2002; Dustmann et al.2010) and on economic growth (Borjas 1995; Drinkwater et al.2007). Opinion polls regularly show that over 70% of the population support reduced migration and the issue of migration has steadily become more important for people as net migration has increased since 200012. This headline finding does, however, obscure some subtleties around the public’s attitudes towards migrants. Ford (2011), for example, finds that there is a “hierarchy of preferences” with immigrants of the same colour and with a similar culture preferred to those who are non-white and more culturally distinct. However Ford’s data are from a period before large scale migration from EUA8 countries. Similarly, skilled migrants and those whom it is believed will come to the UK to contribute to the economy or to fill skill gaps are favoured over the unskilled (Ford et al.2012). More recent evidence suggests that migrants from Eastern Europe are less welcome than those from Western Europe, the Old Commonwealth (Canada, Australia and New Zealand) and the United States. Eastern Europeans were favoured to a similar extent as those from Latin America, Asia or Africa13. Overall, this does not suggest that there would be much support from either politicians or the public for a relaxation of immigration restrictions for EaP nationals.
1NINo registrations should provide a relative accurate indication of the number of migrant workers coming to work in the UK for the first time since they are obtained from an administrative database maintained by the Department for Work and Pensions. Further information on this data source is provided in Flows of migrants from EaP Countries to the UK and migrant stocks.
2In contrast, the percentage of NINo registrations accounted for by individuals from Asia and the Middle East fell from 32 per cent to 20 per cent over the same period, whilst the percentage of registrations accounted for by Africans declined from 19 per cent to 8 per cent.
3EUA8 migrant workers were required to register on the Worker Registration Scheme within one month of taking up employment in the UK. However, it is estimated that a fairly high percentage of workers who should have registered failed to do so. See Drinkwater et al. (2009) for details. Much tighter restrictions were put in place for Bulgarian and Romanian migrants wishing to work in the UK, after these countries joined the European Union in 2007.
4In 2007, the overall quota for the SAWS was 16,250. Of this amount, 40 per cent was reserved for Bulgarians and Romanians and the remaining 60 per cent was filled by students from non-EEA countries. The SAWS and SBS became reserved just for workers from Bulgaria and Romania from January 2008. Salt (2009) reports that there were a small number of workers from Ukraine (61) and Moldova (9) on the SAWS in 2008. This compared with 10,850 Bulgarians and 5,674 Romanians in that year.
5These figures are consistent with those reported for the SAWS and SBS by Salt (2009).
6Different national statistical agencies carry out the Census in England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. This sometimes means some variations in the questions asked and also the need to aggregate responses together to obtain figures for the United Kingdom.
7In particular, Table ST015 contains details on country of birth (for countries with larger resident populations in the United Kingdom), and also enables a limited breakdown by characteristics for gender, age group and area of residence.
8For 1999, however, respondents in their fifth wave of interview are also included, which provides a slight boost to the sample.
9More detailed information on age differences is included in Table 6.
10The EU14 countries are Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden. Other European Countries are those countries in Europe that are not part of the EU14, EUA8 or the EaP so includes countries such as Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia, which joined the EU after 2004.
11Data tables are available at the UNESCO statistics website: http://www.uis.unesco.org/Pages/default.aspx. Calculations are the authors’.
12See the summary by the Migration Observatory: http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/uk-public-opinion-toward-immigration-overall-attitudes-and-level-concern.
13See the analysis reported by one of the present authors at http://blog.policy.manchester.ac.uk/featured/2013/10/what-kind-of-immigration-do-we-want/.
This study was conducted under the project entitled “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Countries” for the European Commission (Contract No. 2011/270-312, tender procedure EuropeAid/130215/C/SER/Multi). The European Commission retains ownership of the materials contained herein.
Material from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey is Crown Copyright and has been made available by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) through the Economic and Social Data Service. We are also grateful to comments on an earlier draft from Martin Kahanec and Lucia Kurekova. The views expressed in this study and any errors therein are those of the authors.
Responsible editor: Martin Kahanec
- Blanchflower D, Bell D: “UK unemployment in the Great Recession”, National Institute Economic Review. 2010, R3-R25.Google Scholar
- Blanchflower D, Saleheen J, Shadforth C: “The impact of recent migration from Eastern Europe on the UK economy”. Bonn: IZA Discussion Paper No. 2615; 2007.Google Scholar
- Blinder S: UK public opinion toward immigration: Overall attitudes and level of concern. Oxford: University of Oxford, Migration Observatory Briefing Paper; 2011.Google Scholar
- Borjas GJ: The economic benefits from immigration. J Econ Perspect 1995, 9(2):3–22. 10.1257/jep.9.2.3View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Clark K, Drinkwater S: Ethnicity and self-employment in Britain. Oxf Bull Econ Stat 1998, 60: 393–407.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Clark K, Drinkwater S: “UK migration policy and migration from Eastern Partnership Countries”. Bonn: IZA Discussion Paper No. 7665; 2013.Google Scholar
- Clarke S: “The STEM subject push”, Civitas Online Report. 2011. http://www.civitas.org.uk/pdf/stempush2011.pdfGoogle Scholar
- Devitt C: “Labour migration governance in contemporary Europe. The UK case”, Fieri Working Paper. 2012.Google Scholar
- Drinkwater S, Levine P, Lotti E, Pearlman J: The immigration surplus revisited in a general equilibrium model with endogenous growth. J Reg Sci 2007, 47: 569–601. 10.1111/j.1467-9787.2007.00521.xView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Drinkwater S, Eade J, Garapich M: Poles apart? EU enlargement and the labour market outcomes of immigrants in the UK. Int Migr 2009, 47: 161–190. 10.1111/j.1468-2435.2008.00500.xView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Drinkwater S, Eade J, Garapich M: “What’s behind the figures? An investigation into recent Polish migration to the UK”. In A Continent Moving West? EU Enlargement and Labour Migration from Central and Eastern Europe. Edited by: Black R, Engbersen G, Okolski M, Pantiru C. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press; 2010.Google Scholar
- Drinkwater S, Robinson C: “Welfare participation by immigrants in the UK”. Bonn: IZA Discussion Paper No. 6144; 2011.Google Scholar
- Dustmann C, Fabbri F, Preston I: The impact of immigration on the British labour market. Econ J 2005, 115: F324-F341. 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2005.01038.xView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Dustmann C, Frattini T, Hills C: Assessing the fiscal costs and benefits of A8 migration to the UK. Fisc Stud 2010, 31: 1–41. 10.1111/j.1475-5890.2010.00106.xView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Dustmann C, Glitz A, Frattini T: The labour market effects of immigration. Oxf Rev Econ Policy 2008, 24: 478–495.View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Dustmann C, Weiss Y: Return migration: theory and empirical evidence from the UK. Br J Ind Relat 2007, 45: 236–256. 10.1111/j.1467-8543.2007.00613.xView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- European Commission: “EU cooperation for a successful Eastern Partnership”. 2012. Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/where/neighbourhood/eastern_partnership/documents/eastern_partnership_flyer_final_en.pdfGoogle Scholar
- Ford R: Acceptable and unacceptable immigrants: how opposition to immigration in Britain is affected by migrants’ region of origin. J Ethn Migr Stud 2011, 37: 1017–1037. 10.1080/1369183X.2011.572423View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Ford R, Morrell G, Heath A: Fewer but better? Public views about immigration. In British Social Attitudes: The 29th Report. Edited by: Park A, Clery E, Curtice J, Phillips M, Utting D. London: NatCen Social Research; 2012.Google Scholar
- George A, Lalani M, Mason G, Rolfe H, Rosazza Bondibene C: Skilled immigration and strategically important skills in the UK economy. London: Report to the Migration Advisory Committee; 2012.Google Scholar
- Gomulka J, Stern N: The employment of married women in the United Kingdom 1970–83. Economica 1990, 57: 171–199. 10.2307/2554159View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Gordon I, Scanlon K, Travers T, Whitehead C: “Economic impact on the London and UK economy of an earned regularisation of irregular migrants to the UK”. London: Report to the Greater London Authority; 2009.Google Scholar
- Gott C, Johnston K: The migrant population in the UK: Fiscal effects. London: Home Office Research, Development and Statistics Occasional Paper No. 77; 2002.Google Scholar
- Gregg P, Wadsworth J: Employment in the 2008–2009 recession. Econ Labour Market Rev 2010, 4(8):37–43. 10.1057/elmr.2010.111View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Hatton T: Explaining trends in UK immigration. J Popul Econ 2005, 18: 719–740. 10.1007/s00148-005-0015-1View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Hatton T, Wheatley Price S: Migration, migrants and policy in the United Kingdom. In European Migration: What Do We Know?. Edited by: Zimmermann KF. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2005.Google Scholar
- Lemos S, Portes J: “The impact of migration from the new European Union member states on native workers”. London: Department for Work and Pensions Working Paper No. 52; 2008.Google Scholar
- OECD: Country of Birth Database, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. 2008.Google Scholar
- ONS: Employment Levels by Country of Birth and Nationality. London: Office for National Statistics; 2012.Google Scholar
- Pollard N, Latorre M, Sriskandarajah D: Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post EU Enlargement Migration Flows to (and from) the UK. London: Institute for Public Policy Research; 2008.Google Scholar
- Salt J: International migration and the United Kingdom. London: Report of the United Kingdom SOPEMI Correspondent to the OECD; 2009.Google Scholar
- Woodbridge J: Sizing the unauthorised (illegal) migrant population in the United Kingdom in 2001”, Home Office Online Report 29/05. 2005.Google Scholar
This article is published under license to BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited.